Xue Long 2 on sea trials. Photo by PRIC.

NORTHCOM’s online magazine, “The Watch,” gives us a balanced, non-alarmist, look at Chinese Arctic activity, but also tells us why maybe Russia should be worried.

I have contended for a long time that sometime in the future, China will turn on Russia and recover those parts of China ceded to Russia as a result of unequal treaties (and here) in the 19th Century, during what China calls the Century of Humiliation, and while they are at it, maybe a bit more. They have neither forgotten nor forgiven.  

Library of Congress Geography and Map Division Washington, D.C. 20540-4650 USA
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China and Russia have a long history of conflict (here, here, here and here), There was a border conflict between China and Russia (then the Soviet Union) in 1969, when China was clearly the weaker of the two, that lead to China opening to the West and Nixon’s trip to China.

Russia and China’s current partnership has mostly benefited China. China benefited from technology transfers and reverse engineered Soviet and Russian weapon systems.

Now China is clearly stronger than Russia in just about everything except nuclear weapons, and they are now rapidly growing their nuclear capability.

If China should decide retaking Taiwan, which has 215,000 active military and 2,310,000 reservists, a tech savvy population of about 24 million, and is protected by the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait and has potential help from powerful allies, may be too risky, they may decide recovery of Outer Manchuria is a good consolation prize.

Population of the Russian Far East, 1990-2015 Data source: Fedstat. Author: Underlying lk. (About four million of these live in former Chinese territory.)

The Russian population in the Far East is small and declining. Russian infrastructure connecting industrialized European Russia with the FarEast is weak. Most of the Russian military is in Europe, and their weakness has been exposed in Ukraine.

If China attempted to retake land formerly part of China, they would want to cut Russia’s East/West logistics links. Taking out the few railroad links using airpower would be relatively easy. Air links can’t carry much in the way of heavy equipment. Most Russian supplies and material reinforcements would have to come by sea. Even if the Chinese did not interdict Russian traffic on the Norther Sea Route as suggested in the linked post, China’s Navy and Air Force could dominate Russian access to the Sea of Japan, including the primary Russian Pacific Fleet base in Vladivostok. Chinese submarines and their rapidly expanding force of aircraft carriers could probably cut off access to the Sea of Okhotsk and Petropavlovsk.

From a Chinese point of view recovery would be justified and perhaps far less costly than an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

If the Russians can be made to see the righting on the wall, they might even be willing to sell the territory back to their friend at wholesale.