Real Clear Defense offers what I believe is an insightful article about the aftermath of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, “China and Taiwan: Beware the Law of Unintended Consequences.

It also suggests that the invasion is likely in the near future.

For the Coast Guard, the one thing I want to point out is that there will be a blockade.

Geographic Boundaries of the First and Second Island Chains. Image:China Report 2006.pdf. DOD.

The blockade will not be a close one like Markettime, it will be executed in the Tsushima Strait between Japan and Korea and outside the “first island chain.”

It would need to be discriminating in that ships with cargos for China’s neighbors would have to be allowed through, if those cargos were not ultimately intended for China. The US could not simply use Air Power to sink anything that crosses into the East or South China Sea.

Undoubtably the Coast Guard will have a role; certainly with existing special teams and likely a need to form more and with FRCs and larger cutters to host and deploy boarding teams and custody crews. Even buoy tenders might be used in this role.

The CG forces will need to be able to forcibly stop even the largest ships, just as they need this capability to address the peacetime terrorist threat.

CG forces might be able to call in DOD assets to provide the necessary persuasion, but those resources might be in demand elsewhere. Larger cutters with their current armament of 57 and 76mm guns might be sufficient. Merchant ship crews are less likely to be willing to die to reach their objectives than a terrorist crew would be, but it would be best if cutters had organic weapons that were more convincing than the 25mm.