The choice of the NSC as the basis for the FF(X) has prompted a lot of discussion about their survivability. Ten years ago, I did a post, “Small Warship Survivability,” I think it is still relevant. Basically I found that while it is certainly true that a major hit is more likely to sink a small ship than a large ship, the probability of actually being sunk is, based on US WWII experience, less likely for smaller ships. Looking at the video above, it seems that is the British experience as well.

In addition, it is far more likely that large ships will be taken out of service for a period due to damage that does not sink the ship. The current lack of tenders, repair ships, and floating dry docks makes these periods likely to be relatively long.

Considering the possibility of a war with China, it seems little thought has gone into how the effort will be supplied. In 2018 the Navy frankly told Military Sealift Command that they would probably not be able to escort the logistics ships that supply the US military. Additionally we have so few merchant mariners, we cannot afford to loose any of them.

The head of the Chinese Navy is a submariner. The Chinese have studied the naval war in the Pacific during WWII and they found the Japanese’s primary mistake was not attacking US logistics. We can be pretty sure, if we go to war, Chinese nuclear submarines, supported by their constellation of satellites, will be positioned to ambush our logistics when hostilities start. (I think there may be a possibility of armed merchant ships as well early in the conflict. MSC ships are essentially unarmed making them easy prey.)

Our situation is not unlike that of the Royal Navy in WWII. We do not have enough ships to escort the logistics ships. If we try to make each new ship capable of dealing with every threat, we will be unable to build enough. We need to build enough that are just good enough to handle escorting in areas where the threats are limited to submarines and their limited number of weapons. In areas where the threats more diverse, they will have to be teamed with more capable ships.

We will also need to be able to take out their satellites, but that is a job for Space Force.

It might be possible to escort some ships with Maritime Patrol Aircraft like the P-8. To make that possible we probably need to reopen NAS Adak, but if the vessels are sunk, the aircraft cannot rescue the crew.

An aspect of the Battle of the Atlantic that is frequently overlooked, is how many merchant mariners were rescued by escorts and specialist rescue vessels. If the crews know that there will be no rescue if their ships are sunk, they might not even choose to start.

Check out the video. The success of the corvettes was remarkable.