Still frames from footage of a November 2025 lethal strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean as part of Operation Southern Spear. U.S. Southern Command

The Navy League’s on line magazine, Seapower, reports,

“U.S. officials spoke to the media yesterday regarding the progress of Operation Southern Spear — the large-scale U.S. military and counter-narco-terrorism campaign in the Western Hemisphere — one year after the operation launched in September 2025, saying the mission has been largely successful thus far.

“Of note, one official said U.S. Southern Command’s counternarcotics operations over the past year have driven record reductions in illicit maritime activity, with a 65% reduction in the Western Caribbean, a 60% reduction in the Eastern Caribbean and a nearly 50% reduction in key areas of the Eastern Pacific.”

It does seem the conflict has changed. There was a two month period in which SOUTHCOM’s Southern Spear task force made no lethal kinetic strikes on purported drug smuggling boats, then on August 23 and August 25 lethal kinetic strikes were made. Since then there have been three reported interceptions of refueling vessels.

• https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4589814/interdiction-of-narco-terrorist-refueling-vessel-sept-2-2026/
• https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4591068/interdiction-of-narco-terrorist-refueling-vessel-sept-3-2026/
• https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4591750/interdiction-of-narco-terrorist-refueling-vessel-sept-5-2026/

In each case the vessels were towing several small boats. The reports did not indicate if any drugs were found on the refueling vessel of the towed small boats.

It may be too early to declare victory. As we have seen the past, squeeze the ballon in one place, it bulges out somewhere else.