We have a report from the Japan Times that, ”
“The United States and Japan plan to hold a meeting of coast guard commanders with Australia and the Philippines as part of their efforts to forge a unified front against China’s maritime activities, according to diplomatic sources.”
with the meeting likely to take place in the Philippines.
Australia’s coast guards are volunteer organizations, more like the CG auxiliary, so their representative is likely to be Royal Australian Navy. I would think the Philippine Navy might have a role here as well. Although the Philippine Coast Guard is being reinforced, it is still not up to the task of facing down the Chinese Coast Guard. Even their Navy would have a hard time with that. There is also a Philippino fisheries management agency which is likely to be a player.
Interestingly recently Reuters reported that the US was “open” to joint patrols with the Philippines. Apparently the US is also talking Joint Patrols with India.
What does all this mean for the Coast Guard?
It appears the most likely outcome is USCG and perhaps Japanese and/or Australian ship-riders on Philippine ships and perhaps USCG ship-riders on Japanese cutters. If something happens between Chinese and Philippine units that might prompt the US to intercede, we would certainly want to know what actually happened. We don’t want to be dragged into a war because a Philippine unit acted improperly and then blamed the Chinese. Good documentation would also be useful in influencing domestic and world opinion. Ship-riders would also mean that if the Chinese attempt to bully the Philippines or Japan by the use of deadly force, it would mean they would have to consider the prossible consequences of US and/or Australian casualties as well.
There are other, less likely possibilities, we might, as 7th Fleet has suggested, send a cutter to patrol with the Philippine Coast Guard, or with Philippine Coast Guard representatives embarked, allowing the cutter to provide transportation and support for Philippine Authorities. Also possible, but probably more provocative and therefore less likely, would be putting Coast Guard LEDET and Philippine authorities on US Navy vessels to enforce Philippine law.
I suspect these consultations are in anticipation of a favorable decision on behalf of the Philippines by the International Tribunal on Law of the Sea. If the Tribunal decices the Chinese are imposing themselves on territory that should be under Philippine administration, what will be done about it?
Here’s a Question Chuck,
How likely is the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy up to the task on standing up against the Chinese Coast Guard or do they need to have the US Coast Guard teach them on the US Coast Guard way of doing things.
COM7thFleet, “I’m asking our Coast Guard to become more involved to help us with these types of operations,” Aucoin added, because it’s not simply grey hulls any more.” http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/ships/2016/02/15/littoral-combat-ship-dearly-needed-pacific-navy-commander-says/80411422/
Another version of this. Story here. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-15/u-s-concerned-by-china-using-non-navy-boats-in-south-china-sea
Is this the Navy’s way of saying we need a bigger coast guard, and why we are getting a 9th NSC?
While we need a ninth NSC, I think the reason we are getting it is because HII has political clout.
The Navy has. Generally been quiet on the need for more Coast Guard. 7th Fleet has been an exception, in that they see a need for white ships to deal with Chinese white ships.
We have gotten some support from SouthCom because of their dearth of assets to deal with the drug interdiction problem.
My impression is the Navy has very mixed feelings about a more capable Coast Guard. It would be a good thing as long as it does not cut into their budget, but they are not vocal about it, because they are afraid it will.
An Australian view of what Chinese expansionism. http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/03/11/upping_the_ante_in_the_south_china_sea_109130.html
China’s semi-official newspaper calls for an attack on Australian ships if they participate in “Freedom of Navigation” exercises in the South China Sea. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/997320.shtml
Japan is providing the Philippines ten 144 foot patrol boats and now it looks like they will also provide a couple of 295 foot cutters. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-japan-idUSKCN10N0NI
Good overview. “In East China Sea, Beijing plays long game” –Asia Times
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/12/article/in-east-china-sea-beijing-plays-long-game/
In response the Japanese are altering the structure of their ground forces. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2019/12/japan-mod-announces-new-deployment-training-plan-for-jgsdf-with-focus-on-island-defense/
A different view of why China may start a war. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/09/14/china_as_a_faltering_contender_577273.html