The naval centric blog Informationdissemination has an interesting series of charts that purportedly show what the Navy thinks will be typical fleet distributions in the years 2013, 2017, and 2020.
It included a couple of surprises that might impact the Coast Guard.
Apparently there will be some significant changes in the forces assigned to SouthCom (Fourth Fleet). This could reasonably be expected to impact drug enforcement operations in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and Law Enforcement Detachments assigned to SouthCom Navy assets.
From five ships in 2013, typically:
- 2 CG/DDG
- 1 FFG
- 1 Amphib
- 1 Hospital Ship
In 2017, PCs and JHSVs replace the cruisers, destroyers, and frigates. The force is expected to include fourteen vessels:
- 10 PC
- 1 Amphib
- 2 JHSV (Joint High Speed Vessels)
- 1 Hospital Ship
By 2020 two LCS replace the amphib. The composition is expected to include fifteen vessels:
- 10 PC
- 2 LCS
- 2 JHSV (Joint High Speed Vessels)
- 1 Hospital Ship
The PCs are presumably Cyclone Class, because there are no new construction PCs planned for the Navy, but there is some question as to whether the Cyclone class will last until 2017 much less 2020.
The coding in the charts tell us the two JHSVs are expected to be permanently stationed in the area. (Could that mean Puerto Rico?) The other assets rotate in and out of the area. The JHSVs are fast. They have a helo deck. I haven’t seen any indication of their boat handling arrangement yet. They are basically high speed ferries, intended for intra-theater transportation. Their range is relatively limited.
The charts don’t indicate any shift in interest into the Arctic. Hard to tell if that omission is meaningful. Presumably some of the 15 ships on the West Coast (Third Fleet) could operate in the Arctic, but there is no change in the numbers on either coast in any of the three charts.
(Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, the charts tell us nothing about the six WPCs currently assigned to Patrol Forces South West Asia (PATFORSWA)).