As noted earlier, there doesn’t seem to be universal agreement on what the “Law of the Sea” (UNCLOS) means. The Washington Post is reporting that Senior Col. Geng Yansheng, a Ministry of Defense spokesman, has claimed that China has “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea but would continue to allow others to freely navigate the 1.3 million-square-mile waterway.
On July 23 Secretary Clinton crossed the Chinese by suggesting an multilateral approach to resolution of competing claims. Competing claims involve Japan, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines. Claims to the Spratley Islands group seem to be particularly contentious. There is an outline of competing claims here. China has used force in the past, seizing the Paracel Islands from Vietnam in 1976. Dai Bingguo, China’s state councilor in charge of foreign policy, had told Secretary Clinton in May during a tense exchange on the region that China viewed its claims to the sea as a “core national interest.” In addition they seem to have thrown down the gauntlet to the US over exercises in the Yellow Sea.
To complicate matters, the Chinese have a new weapon system, and anti-ship ballistic missile, to enforce their claims, that makes the Navy’s traditional response to Chinese aggressiveness appear much more dangerous.
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More Chinese threats here: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Will-retaliate-if-offended-by-US-warns-China-Gen/articleshow/6307870.cms
And here: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67B11W20100813?type=politicsNews
This story is still developing. China is again warning the US to “butt out.” Bloomberg reports: “China signaled for the U.S. to stay out of disputes over the South China Sea, three days before President Barack Obama is due to meet with regional leaders concerned over China’s territorial claims in the oil-and gas- rich waters.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-21/china-tells-u-s-to-stay-out-of-dispute-over-south-china-sea-s-sovereignty.html
Maybe the Vietnamese will have another go at it.
More here:
http://www.cfr.org/publication/22993/upping_the_ante_in_chinajapan_clash.html?cid=rss-fullfeed-upping_the_ante_in_china_japan-092210&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cfr_main+%28CFR.org+-+Main+Site+Feed%29
and here
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/world/asia/23china.html?_r=2
To me it appears that the Chinese , with several disputed claims to sovereignty in the South and East China Seas, has chosen to take on the dispute with the Japanese first. There are a couple of reasons for making this choice.
–For their own people the Japanese are seen as guilty of horrible crimes against the Chinese during WWII so it is easy to arouse their own population against them.
–They actually have a stronger case for sovereignty over these islands than over the other disputed islands.
–They will get some support from Taiwan in that they also disputed Japan’s claim to the islands.
If the Chinese win this one, it will tend to intimidate other nations that have similar disputes with China.
Outside of the US Navy, the Japanese Navy is probably the best equipped in the Pacific. I was not surprised at the timing, given China’s reactions to Secretary Clinton’s statements in Hanoi a few weeks earlier. I am sure the Chinese side knows the material strength of the Japanese Navy, what China is testing in my eyes is Japan’s resolve and indirectly the US. If China can intimidate Japan, the region’s strategic ally of the US, then it can intimidate other nations in SE Asia and North East Asia.
In the past 200 years, following the industrial revolution, the world and especially the West has not seen nor known a powerful China. China see the period of colonialism and many defeats as an affront to its past grandeur. Now that it is becoming stronger economically, it likely wants to re-establish its circle of vassal states as there were many during the millenniums leading to Christ and after. Unless I am wrong, China already drew its first and 2nd circles recently. Sure, oil and gas are important to its growth, but having vassal states will be psychologically much more important. By declaring that this and that part of the sea is its core strategic interests, China does not leave any room for negotiation or ground for possible agreement. For countries sharing common land and maritime borders with China, a powerful China is going to means open one’s history books, like Vietnam or Korea, and learn from China’s past conquests. China will always proclaim it has not invaded any one in its history, as all of its past invasions are defined as police actions.
I do not see much options for Japan nor for ASEAN but to arm themselves, it is going to be a case of peace through strength. As important as the acquisition of submarines, will be each country’s resolve. Japan’s aspirations for one Greater Asia and its actions during WW2 were clearly wrong, they should learn from that but it is also time to leave that behind and get ready. I am sure in coming years, we will see further Chinese fishing trawlers, just like the old Soviet Union trawlers, testing Japan and Vietnam’s navies. In SE Asia, outside of Vietnam, none of the other nation’s forces have been battle tested against China in the 20th century nor before historically.
How the US will react to future China’s pushes will also be determinant how long peace can be maintained in Asia and the Pacific.
PS: China’s took the remaining Paracel islands from Vietnam in 1974, not 1976. There was a second naval clash with Vietnam around 1986-1988 around some of the Spratly islands (I am not sure some of these rocks qualify as islands in geology).
A bit more on the topic here: http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-eyes-naval-track-record.html
More friction between Vietnam and China:
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/vietnam-accuses-china-after-patrol-boat-fracas.html
http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2011/05/photo-of-day-challenging-vietnamese.html
And between China and the Philippines:
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-has-made-great-strategic-advantages-in-spratly-island.html
And on the heals of that we have that Vietnam is getting mobile shore based “BrahMos” (SS-N-26) supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles
http://nosint.blogspot.com/2011/05/vietnam-missile-self-protection-of.html
and another new Russian built light frigate:
http://navaltoday.com/2011/05/29/zelenodolsk-shipyard-sends-gepard-3-9-class-ship-to-vietnam/
Interestingly it is being transported to Vietnam on a special transport ship rather than sailing on its own.
Apparently Indonesia is getting the same missile.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/indonesia%E2%80%99s-anti-ship-missiles-new-development-in-naval-capabilities-analysis-31052011/
A bit more on the Vietnamese side of the conflict: http://www.thanhniennews.com/2010/Pages/20110602115938.aspx
This is a different, more recent incident.
The hits just keep coming
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/160685/20110610/china-vietnam-south-sea-war-domination-aggression-chinese-vietnamese-hanoi-ho-chi-minh-defense-oil-e.htm
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/vietnam-welcomes-us-help-as-sea-dispute-with-china.html
Something of the Philippines view of the “correlation of forces” as the Soviets used to call it. If it comes to a fight with any of the other claimants to the South China Sea Islands, they are on the short end of the stick without US help. http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=696267&publicationSubCategoryId=63
And more here. A statement by the Chinese that they will not resort to force:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gbtXe1brUEVeMgUHtnVaSr4eYXCg?docId=CNG.aead89b9b363e3445792d08a945af810.621
Here is a Chinese view:
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-intensifying-tension-not-conducive-to-solving-south-china-sea-dispute.html
They have been “patient and sincere” “China’s stand on the issue is open and honest. As the first country to discover and develop the islands in the South China Sea, China has indisputable sovereignty over these islands and the surrounding waters.”
And the Chinese stage an exercise for emphasis.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hcvn7erNB5jKueXxDBYvBVH8nUIQ?docId=CNG.a524926998286f1a68c739cd3a564f2b.931
And now Taiwan makes a move: http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2011/06/cdf-oped-rocn-and-south-china-sea.html
The situation is getting serious enough that the Philippine legislature is asking questions about the rules of engagement, should there be an incident between one of their naval vessels, recently sent to the area, and the Chinese.
Meanwhile the US is pledging to help arm the Philippines.
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/06/rules-of-engagement-in-south-china-sea.html
Expect more cutters to go to the Philippine Navy. We may also see them with additional weaponry.
And there is this semi-official statement from the a Chinese news agency stating that they have to be ready to consider armed conflict with the Vietnamese: http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-must-react-to-vietnams-provocation.html
Gotta love the propaganda writing style of the author of this article. That, and the reference (probably a translation issue) to Vietnamese “Battleships” make this one of the funniest serious stories I’ve read in a long time!
One of the best explanation why the Chinese are building aircraft carriers
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/27/blue_water_dreams
Latest in this continuing saga, Chinese military reportedly beat up the captain of a Vietnamese fishing boat, threatened the other nine members of the crew, and confiscated a ton of fish.
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/chinese-soldiers-attack-vietnam-fishermen.html
The PRC or the ROC. Both have claims in the S. China Sea and both claim to be and are both recognized as China depending on which country. Be specific.
True, but I was referencing an article that was not itself explicit, although the implication was clearly that they were talking about PRC. At some level it is at least possible that the fisherman making the report may not have know whether they were PRC or ROC.
Correct me if I’m wrong but dosn’t the Chinese culture tend to promote the long view in terms of thinking, in addition to all the points above, which means that dispite a century of unrest they still remember when they were a super power and that they want it back in addition to the trade issues.
I’ve frequently heard the opinion that the Chinese regarded the period of European domination as an anomaly and that they regard Chinese hegemony as the natural state of affairs.
Certainly not everyone supports the idea that all nations have equal rights, even the US insisted on veto power in the united nations. As Thucydides quoted, “Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
Since the discussion brought up trhe ‘long view’ and I can’t help think Sun Tzu, I’ll paraphrase Clauswitz. ‘war is just an extension of politics.’
That is a fact.
Another “semi-official” statement from the Chinese with treats against Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the US: http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/neighbors-threaten-chinas-peace.html
And a Taiwanese view of what the US is doing: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2011/07/17/2003508427
Here is a different view of PRC’s motivation, looking at the nuclear deterrent implications:
http://the-diplomat.com/2011/07/18/why-china-wants-the-south-china-sea/
The US and Vietnamese positions here: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/special-report/10738/the-east-sea–seizing-opportunity–getting-out-of-danger.html
PF 15 (ex-USCGC HAMILTON) officially dparted Alameda on 18 July bound for the Philippines.
Amazing it wasn’t reported here with all the Coast Guard experts and insiders here writing for CGBlog.
Note that PF-15 is slated to be the new flagship of the Philippine Navy. That doesn’t give me a ton of confidence about the overall condition of their fleet.
How exactly are you an expert on the material condition of HAMILTON? Why should any of us have a ton of confidence in you?
That doesn’t necessarily imply Hamilton is in bad shape, but the fact is that it is only one small, at least as delivered, poorly armed ship. The current flag ship is a WWII vintage destroyer escort, so Hamilton is a major upgrade, but they still look very poorly equipped next to China or in fact any of the other Navies belonging to the other countries that are laying claims to the disputed islands.
Latest development, China and ASEAN reach another agreement on how to handle the fact that they disagree without any agreement on actual resolution of claims:
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/sea-07222011105813.html
China reminds all that at the end of the day, they own it all.
Some interesting analysis/speculation here, “Why a War Between China and Vietnam is Inevitable”:
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/why-a-war-between-china-and-vietnam-is-inevitable.html
More saber rattling by the PRC:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-philippines-lacks-sincerity-over-resolution-of-island-claims-warns-of-consequences/2011/08/02/gIQAXsJ4oI_story.html?wprss=rss_world
Apparently the PRC is messing with S. Korea as well:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2011/08/137_92118.html
There is an excellent piece here that prompted a good discussion in the comments, well worth the read:
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/08/on-predicting-future.html
China’s large flat deck conducted sea trails this week. Commentary is starting up on the implications for regional naval affairs.
Good article discussing China’s “attitude” here:
http://www.aei.org/article/104045
Sounds like this will be the Chinese argument for their “ownership”:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-08/30/content_13215982.htm
Most recently China v. India
http://m.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-international/article2460486.ece/
Here is another rationale for China’s actions, that they want to use it as a bastion for their Fleet Ballistic Missile Submarines:
http://newpacificinstitute.org/jsw/?p=8301
Not sure I find that argument credible.
Another view here referring to a September-October 2011 “Foreign Policy” article (“The South China Sea is the future of conflict”) by Robert D. Kaplan:
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=733099&publicationSubCategoryId=64
More public argument, this one disputing China’s claims:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MJ05Ae03.html
Another interpretation of why China is doing what they have been doing, that it is aimed at securing unrestricted access to the Pacific:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2011/10/09/2003515300/1
The The People’s Republic of China has stopped referring to their Navy as the People’s Liberation Army Navy or PLAN. It is now referred to as simply China Navy.
http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2011/10/eww-as-if-eww-pla-is-like-so-yesterday.html
At least China and Vietnam appear to be taking steps to reduce tension.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/world/asia/china-and-vietnam-move-to-reduce-tensions-in-south-china-sea.html?_r=1
but then there is this, indications India will be helping Vietnam look for oil in disputed waters:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jVswOiC2Sz9WCvRwbMskN5VoRoQg?docId=72efbeb0c629443da46e0e8f2a6a67cc
More mixed signals from China, “nations involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea should ‘mentally prepare for the sounds of cannons'” : http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/idINIndia-60101520111025
Meanwhile Vietnam is also adding to their fleet:
http://rusnavy.com/news/navy/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=13426
There is a better picture here:
https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/nUzm5LVZBVnOj6XvZzQ6Jg?feat=embedwebsite
“Non-military” but cooperation between Vietnam and the Philippines:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/26/us-philippines-vietnam-idUSTRE79P2WA20111026?feedType=RSS&feedName=china&virtualBrandChannel=10166&WT_tsrc=Social+Media&WT_z_smid=twtr-blog_Changing_China&WT_z_smid_dest=Twitter&dlvrit=70040
A good summary of what has been happening in this area from a Japanese point of view (the author is Japanese American): http://newpacificinstitute.org/jsw/?p=8584
More jingoism from a semi-official Chinese news source:
“US Has No Stomach for South China Sea Military Clash”
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/us-has-no-stomach-for-s-china-sea-military-clash.html
Now a video of a confrontation between a Vietnam Maritime Police vessel rammed a China Maritime Surveillance vessel that reportedly took place within the last six months.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=8206564&c=ASI&s=SEA
Latest on this from the ASEAN Conference:
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/philippines-wants-decisive-action-on-china-sea-oil-claims.html
And here is a Chinese response to the Philippine proposal:
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/why-philippines-again-churns-up-south-china-sea.html
Thoughtful piece on Chinese Naval Strategy here:
http://the-diplomat.com/2011/11/20/yes-china-could-have-global-navy/