
A still image taken from footage released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines showing China Coast Guard personnel confronting a resupply mission (Photo: Armed Forces of the Philippines)
Real Clear Defense reports,
Philippines Vows To Fight Back if Assaulted Again in South China Sea
At first, I was happy to see this, but I think they are making a mistake.
Philippine forces will defend themselves with “the same level of force …“If a knife is used, for example, our personnel will also use a knife, nothing more, under the concept of proportionality.”
If you are outnumbered in a knife fight you will lose. They will be outnumbered, and they will lose. That would be allowing the Chinese to write the rules of the game. Deadly force is deadly force. If someone is threatening you with a deadly weapon, you need to fire a warning shot, and if they keep coming shot the SOB.
Crews need to say, no one will take my vessel from me. As someone said, “Don’t Give Up the Ship.”
The Chinese are not going to start a war that might include the US until they are fully prepared to do so. Then and only then, they will want to open with a surprise attack.
The Philippines needs to raise the stakes for the Chinese to the point that they either back down or start a war with the US before they are really ready.
Right now, the Chinese are attempting to shape the battlefield to their advantage, building unsinkable missile cruisers surrounding Taiwan. The Philippines holds territory where they would like to place another missile launching platform. So does Japan. China should not be allowed to seize these positions.
Immediately the Philippines should make it clear to the Chinese, that they have no right to be in the Philippine EEZ, or any other country’s, behaving as they have. There is no reason to negotiate because they have no standing. That was decided in the international court of arbitration.
It might be possible to make a joint statement by the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and maybe others.
When a move is made, it needs to be made with overwhelming strength on scene. That is possible if the Philippines employs surprise and has international support on scene. Philippine TA-50 jet aircraft should be overhead, ready to deter an attack on Philippine forces.
The result will be an incident, not a war. We have already seen lots of incidents, this will just add to the list, but this time we need the Chinese to back down.
Scarbough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal need to be reinforced and built up. The US and Japan could and should help the Philippines do it. Mirror what the Chinese have done. Make an artificial island, garrisoned with Marines, give it radars, effective AAW systems, and some of the Philippines’ BraMos missiles.
The Chinese are not going to like it, but unless they want to start a war with the US before they are ready, they will back down. Pulling a piece or two out of their plan to surround Taiwan with missile firing islands might actually prevent an attack on Taiwan.