US, Canada, and Finland announced the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact

USCG Polar Security Cutter [Image courtesy Halter Marine / Technology Associates, Inc.]

Defense News reports,

“Bollinger Shipyards announced Thursday that its Pascagoula Mississippi shipyard now exceeds 1,000 employees, touting the milestone as it gears up to make the first heavy icebreaker in the U.S. in more than 50 years – vessels Washington is keen to produce more of as it partners with Canada and Finland in a pact to bolster icebreaker fleets.

“The three countries announced the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, in a joint statement during the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday.”

Always good to partner with people who know what they are doing.

The US and Canada are at similar points in their efforts to build new heavy icebreakers. Having worked together on research, the two classes have many similarities. Davie, Canada’s shipyard tasked with building their new icebreakers, went to Finland for additional expertise. 

“Davie is a part of Group Davie, which in November 2023 acquired Finland’s Helsinki Shipyard, the world leader in icebreaker design and construction.”

Bollinger indicates they expect that, in addition to building icebreakers for the US Coast Guard, they will build for export. That would be a huge turn around.

Below is Bollinger’s press release.


BOLLINGER TO PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN NEW POLAR PARTNERSHIP (“ICE PACT”)

As the only U.S. builder of heavy polar icebreakers, Bollinger to provide expertise and capacity to NATO allies

Lockport, La., – July 11, 2024 – Bollinger Shipyards (“Bollinger”) today praised the White House’s announcement of the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (“ICE Pact”), a trilateral agreement between the United States, Canada and Finland to contribute capacity and know-how for building polar icebreakers for the United States and its allies, and to counter the expanding presence of our nation’s adversaries and strategic competitors in the Arctic region.

The first and only shipbuilder in the United States to engineer and construct a heavy polar icebreaker in over 50 years, Bollinger will play a critical role in ICE Pact and its efforts to strengthen the polar capabilities of the United States and its allies through the creation of a fleet of polar icebreakers. Bollinger is currently under contract to build the Polar Security Cutter (PSC) heavy polar icebreaker for the United States Coast Guard.

“As the premiere builder of American-made polar icebreakers, Bollinger Shipyards is proud to support the United States and our NATO allies with our deep expertise and capacity,” said Ben Bordelon, Bollinger Shipyards President and CEO. “We have made, and will continue to make, significant, long-term investments in our facilities, infrastructure and workforce. Our goal is to create a world-class American-owned shipyard capable of producing the first fleet of American-made polar icebreakers in over half a century, and we’re honored that responsibility lies with Bollinger.”

Earlier this year, Bollinger’s Pascagoula workforce exceeded 1,000 employees – a substantial reversal of a decade-long trend of declining employment under the Pascagoula facility’s previous owner and reflects Bollinger’s commitment to growth, innovation, and investment along Mississippi’s Gulf Coast.

Bordelon continued, “Our success in reaching this milestone is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our employees, as well as the strategic initiatives we’ve implemented to expand and grow our workforce and operations. We are incredibly proud that Bollinger Shipyards is a critical part of the industrial base for our military and are honored to play a part in ensuring the national security of our nation.”

Since acquiring the Pascagoula facility in 2022, Bollinger has invested more than $40 million in upgrades to the facility’s infrastructure, technology, and personnel to establish a Center of Excellence in building world-class icebreakers. Bollinger has also launched innovative workforce development initiatives, such as its Shipfitter Bootcamp, a comprehensive 14-week workforce development program in partnership with Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College designed to equip current and future Bollinger employees with the essential skills and knowledge required to take their careers as shipfitters to the next level.

ABOUT THE POLAR SECURITY CUTTER (PSC) PROGRAM

The U.S. Coast Guard requires polar icebreaking capability to support the country’s economic, commercial, maritime and national security needs in the Polar Regions. The new Polar Security Cutters (PSCs) will be national assets that will ensure access to both polar regions and be capable of executing key Coast Guard missions, including defense readiness; marine environmental protection; ports, waterways and coastal security; and search and rescue. The ships will operate worldwide and face the range of extreme environmental conditions found in the polar, tropical and temperate regions.

ABOUT BOLLINGER SHIPYARDS 

Bollinger Shipyards (www.bollingershipyards.com) has a 78-year legacy as a leading designer and builder of high-performance military patrol boats and salvage vessels, research vessels, ocean-going double hull barges, offshore oil field support vessels, tugboats, rigs, lift boats, inland waterways push boats, barges, and other steel and aluminum products from its new construction shipyards as part of the U. S. industrial base. Bollinger has 13 facilities, all strategically located throughout Louisiana and Mississippi with direct access to the Gulf of Mexico, the Mississippi River and the Intracoastal Waterway. Bollinger is the largest vessel repair company in the Gulf of Mexico region. This year, Bollinger celebrates a 40-year history of building vessels for the United States Coast Guard.

What Project 2025 Says About the Coast Guard

You have probably heard of Project 2025, a controversial product of an influential conservative think tank. You can find it here.

I wanted to see what they had to say about the Coast Guard.

We are not going to talk about other parts of the document. I don’t want to get into a political discussion. The Coast Guard enjoys strong bipartisan support in Congress, so these are not necessarily exclusively the views of conservatives. Some of these proposals may be favored by more liberal members of Congress as well.

Even with only these few samples, you will also see that the document is not always definitive or internally consistent, particularly in regard to the Coast Guard’s proper place in the government bureaucracy. This is prompted in large part by a proposal to dismantle the Department of Homeland Security (p. 133), but continuance of DHS is still seen as a possibility and many changes to the Department are proposed.

There are suggestions that the Coast Guard should remain in DHS or be moved to DOD, DOJ, or Treasury.

I would certainly agree that the Coast Guard needs a long-term ship building plan and combining it with the Navy’s 30 year ship building plan would increase the Coast Guard’s visibility. I would also agree that we are not building enough large cutters (but they don’t have to be NSCs or OPCs) and we could use a base in American Samoa.

It suggests scaling back our mission set but offers no specific suggestions of which missions other than perhaps shifting the Arctic mission to the Navy, as if they could do it cheaper. We will probably just continue to try to do all eleven missions to the degree that offers the best return on investment within our budget.

I would like to see more coordination with the Navy in the determination of the characteristics required for Coast Guard assets, so that they are useful in wartime. I also see opportunities for synergies with the Navy Reserve.

I used “control F” to find everywhere the Coast Guard is mentioned and have reproduced each paragraph below.


The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) be moved to DOJ and, in time of full-scale
war (i.e., threatening the homeland), to the Department of Defense (DOD).
Alternatively, USCG should be moved to DOD for all purposes. (p.134)


U.S. COAST GUARD (USCG)
Needed Reforms
The U.S. Coast Guard fleet should be sized to the needs of great-power competition, specifically focusing efforts and investment on protecting U.S. waters, all while seeking to find (where feasible) more economical ways to perform USCG missions. The scope of the Coast Guard’s mission needs to be focused on protecting U.S. resources and interests in its home waters, specifically its Exclusive Economic Zone (200 miles from shore). USCG’s budget should address the growing demand for it to address the increasing threat from the Chinese fishing fleet in home waters as well as narcotics and migrant flows in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. Doing this will require reversing years of shortfalls in shipbuilding, maintenance, and upgrades of shore facilities as well as seeking more cost-effective ship and facility designs. In wartime, the USCG supports the Navy, but it has limited capability and capacity to support wartime missions outside home waters.

New Policies
The Coast Guard’s mission set should be scaled down to match congressional budgeting in the long term, with any increased funding going to acquisitions based on an updated Fleet Mix Analysis. The current shipbuilding plan is insufficient based on USCG analysis, and the necessary numbers of planned Offshore Patrol Cutters and National Security Cutters are not supported by congressional budgets. The Coast Guard should be required to submit to Congress a long-range shipbuilding plan modeled on the Navy’s 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan. Ideally this should become part of the Navy plan in a new comprehensive naval long-range shipbuilding plan to ensure better coherency in the services’ requirements.

Outside of home waters, and following the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, the
Coast Guard should prioritize limited resources to the nation’s expansive Pacific
waters to counter growing Chinese influence and encroachment. Expansion of
facilities in American Samoa and basing of cutters there is one clear step in this
direction and should be accelerated; looking to free association states (Palau, the
Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands) for
enhanced and persistent presence, assuming adequate congressional funding, is
another such step.

The Secretary of the Navy should convene a naval board to review and reset
requirements for Coast Guard wartime mission support. To inform and validate
these updated requirements, the Chief of Naval Operations and the Coast Guard
Commandant should execute dedicated annual joint wartime drills focused on
USCG’s wartime missions in the Pacific (the money for these activities should be
allocated from DOD). An interagency maritime coordination office focused on
developing and overseeing comprehensive efforts to advance the nation’s maritime interests and increase its military and commercial competitiveness should be established.

Given the USCG’s history of underfunded missions, if the Coast Guard is to continue to maintain the Arctic mission, money to do so adequately will be required over and above current funding levels. Consideration should be given to shifting the Arctic mission to the Navy. Either way, the Arctic mission should be closely coordinated with our Canadian, Danish, and other allies.

Personnel
USCG is facing recruitment challenges similar to those faced by the military
services. The Administration should stop the messaging on wokeness and diversity
and focus instead on attracting the best talent for USCG. Simultaneously, consistent with the Department of Defense, USCG should also make a serious effort to re-vet any promotions and hiring that occurred on the Biden Administration’s watch while also re-onboarding any USCG personnel who were dismissed from service for refusing to take the COVID-19 “vaccine,” with time in service credited to such returnees. These two steps could be foundational for any improvements in the recruiting process. (p.155-157)


Both the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Navy are vital tools to ensure an unmonopolized Arctic. It is imperative that the Navy and Coast Guard continue to
expand their fleets, including planned icebreaker acquisitions, to assure Arctic
access for the United States and other friendly actors. The remote and harsh conditions of the Arctic also make unmanned system investment and use particularly
appealing for providing additional situational awareness, intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance. The Coast Guard should also consider upgrading facilities,
such as its Barrow station, to reinforce its Arctic capabilities and demonstrate a
greater commitment to the region. (p.190)


MARAD would be better served by being transferred from DOT to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). MARAD is the only DOT modal administration
that does not regulate the industry that it represents: The maritime industry is
regulated by the U.S. Coast Guard (ships and personnel) and by the Federal Maritime Commission (cargo rates and competitive practices). (p. 637)

MARAD, including its subordinate Service Academy (the U.S. Merchant Marine
Academy) should be transferred to the Department of Defense (if the Coast Guard
is located there because DHS has been eliminated) or to the Department of Home
land Security. In this way, the two agencies charged with oversight and regulation
of the Maritime sector—MARAD and the United States Coast Guard—would be
aligned under the same department where operational efficiencies could be realized more easily. (p. 638)

Finally, DHS as a department is experienced in administering and budgeting for
the operation of an existing federal service academy, the U.S. Coast Guard Academy,
which is similar to the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy in size. There would be
increased efficiencies and better alignment of the missions of these two institutions
if they were under one single department that has equity in the industries served
by these academies. (p. 638)


Transfer NOS (National Ocean Service–Chuck) Survey Functions to the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Geological Survey. Survey operations have historically accounted for almost half the NOS budget. These functions could be transferred to the U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Geological Survey to increase efficiency. NOS’ expansion of the National Marine Sanctuaries System should also be reviewed, as discussed below. (p. 676)


U.S. Coast Guard and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. Congress should examine whether to return the Treasury’s former in-house law enforcement capabilities via the return of the United States Coast Guard and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. Bringing these agencies back from the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice, respectively, would allow Treasury, in the case of U.S. Coast Guard, to increase border security via a vigilance with respect to economic crimes (for example, drug smuggling and tax evasion). (p. 709/710)

 

“U.S. Coast Guard encounters People’s Republic of China military naval presence in Bering Sea” –D17

A Coast Guard Cutter Kimball crewmember observing a Russian Destroyer in the Bering Sea, September 19, 2022. Coast Guard Photo

Below is a District 17 (Alaska) news release. USCGC Kimball was doing the same thing two years ago. Last year the US Navy had four destroyers doing the shadowing. In 2021 it was Bertholf. Chinese warship operated legally off American shores back in 2015. NORTHCOM’s on-line magazine, The Watch, suggested how these visits should be viewed.

Two items of note, (1) this is a little earlier in the year than we have seen them in the past, (2) where are the Russians? Usually there are Russian ships with the Chinese.

This provides another example of how the National Security Cutters are taking on a role comparable to AGIs of the Soviet Era.

It is ironic and a bit funny that the Chinese are doing “freedom of navigation operations.”

I will note again that the nearest US Navy surface ship is probably at least 1000 miles away, probably in Japan.


July 10, 2024

JUNEAU, AK –The U.S. Coast Guard encountered multiple People’s Republic of China military ships in the Bering Sea, Saturday and Sunday.

The crew of U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball (WMSL 756) detected three vessels approximately 124 miles north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, and an HC-130J aircrew from U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak detected an additional vessel approximately 84 miles north of the Amukta Pass.

All four of the People’s Republic of China vessels were transiting in international waters but still inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from the U.S. shoreline.

“The Chinese naval presence operated in accordance with international rules and norms,” said Rear Adm. Megan Dean, Seventeenth Coast Guard District commander. “We met presence with presence to ensure there were no disruptions to U.S. interests in the maritime environment around Alaska.”

The Chinese vessels responded to U.S. Coast Guard radio communication and their stated purpose was “freedom of navigation operations.” Coast Guard cutter Kimball continued to monitor all ships until they transited south of the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific Ocean. The Kimball continues to monitor activities in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone to ensure the safety of U.S. vessels and international commerce in the area.

The Coast Guard, in coordination with U.S. Northern Command, was fully aware of and tracked the Chinese naval presence. In September of 2021 and 2022, Coast Guard cutters deployed in the Bering Sea also encountered Chinese surface action groups.

The Kimball patrolled under Operation Frontier Sentinel, a Coast Guard operation designed to meet presence with presence when strategic competitors operate in and around U.S. waters. The U.S Coast Guard’s presence strengthens the international rules-based order and promotes the conduct of operations in a manner that follows international norms.

Coast Guard Cutter Kimball is a 418-foot legend class national security cutter homeported in Honolulu, Hawaii.

“Japan donates new patrol vessel to Indonesia’s Bakamla” –Army Recognition, Navy News

Japan CGC Oki (PL-1) prior to transfer to the Malaysian Coast Guard

Army Recognition’s Navy News reports,

“According to information published by Kompas on July 8, 2024, the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) has received a new patrol vessel from the Japanese government.”

I am a bit confused by this report. It says Indonesia “has received a new patrol vessel.” Then it says,

Construction will take place in Japan, and upon completion, the ship will be officially handed over to Bakamla by the Japanese government through JICA and Japan Marine Science Inc. (JMS).

Acompanying the article is a photo of the former Japan CG cutter Oki (above, previous name Nojima, the only ship of its class) which was transferred to the Malaysia Coast Guard in 2017. (One of three JCG vessels transferred to the Malaysia CG.) Their caption even includes the Malaysia Coast Guard name for the vessel, KM Arau, without any explanation.

They report these specifics about the vessel,

The vessel, with a capacity for 70 crew members, measures 85.6 meters in length and can reach speeds of up to 22 knots.

The length does not correspond to any Japan Coast Guard vessel I have been able to identify.

A December 20, 2023, from the Asia Pacific Defense Journal, “Indonesia to receive large patrol vessel from Japan as part of aid” reported Japan would build a new ship for the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency (BAKAMLA), but that is more than six-month-old news.

Could it be than Japan has already handed over an existing Japan Coast Guard vessel and is also building a new one, or is this just the result of not proofreading an AI written story?

In any case, that Japan is helping not only the Philippines but also Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as Vietnam and others) is significant.

How Other Armed Forces’ Recruitment Efforts are Going

That the Coast Guard has had a workforce shortage is well known. Steps have been taken to improve recruitment and retention, but I have not yet heard how successful the efforts have been.

In 2023 the Army, Navy, and Air Force also had workforce shortages. Their shortages were proportionately smaller, but the problems were similar, lower propensity to serve, fewer qualified young people and a recently implemented health records system, except that unlike the Coast Guard everyone knows the Army, Navy, and Air Force exist and are employment options.

Navy Times reports the Army, Air Force, and Marines are on track to meet or exceed their recruiting goals, the Navy expects to fall short, but is doing much better than in 2023 despite an increase of 5,000 in their recruitment goal.

“We are seeing significant increases year over year as you saw,” Allchin said. “Right now, we’re projecting a miss of around 4,200 for our active enlisted mission of about 40,600.”

 MHS Genesis, the military’s new electronic health record has apparently complicated recruitment.

“Before the health system rollout, Goodyear said, getting 100 new Marine Corps contracts took 154 applicants; now it takes 181 applicants.

“The number of medical waivers being submitted for applicants has more than doubled, creating processing delays.

“The average time in military entry processing for recruits has increased from 10 days to 35 days…With an average of 120 days in the delayed entry program compared with 162 days before MHS Genesis, the boot camp dropout rate has increased, he said, from 11% to 12%.

“…in the Air Force…service officials estimate between 3,000 would-be recruits and 4,000 would-be recruits in 2023 simply walked away from service amid long medical processing wait times.

…“Often, extended delays require these individuals to pursue a different career path based on the financial realities of life.”

 

USCGC Waesche and 7th Fleet Flagship in Vietnam

CAM RANH INTERNATIONAL PORT, Vietnam (July 8, 2024) – Hospital Corpsman 2nd Class Renato Paredes from San Diego, mans the rails as U.S. 7th Fleet flagship USS Blue Ridge (LCC 19) moors Cam Ranh, Vietnam, July 8, 2024. As the 7th Fleet flagship, Blue Ridge is the oldest operational ship in the Navy and routinely operates with allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific. USCGC Waesche is moored in background left. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Adam Craft) 

The “USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: July 8, 2024” notes,

U.S. 7th Fleet command ship USS Blue Ridge (LCC-19) and the Coast Guard cutter USCGC Waesche (WMSL-751) pulled into the Vietnamese port of Cam Ranh Bay on Monday, according to the Navy.

“During the port visit, Blue Ridge and Waesche leadership will meet with the Vietnam People’s Navy, Vietnam Coast Guard, and Khanh Hoa leadership. Events during the visit include subject matter expert exchanges and community relations activities,” reads the statement.

Russian Project 23550 Icebreaking Patrol Vessel in Sea Trials

“The Project 23550 Ice-class patrol ship “Ivan Papanin”, built for the Russian Navy at “Admiralty Shipyards”, went to sea for factory sea trials.
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/21229221

We have a couple of reports that the first of four Russian Project 23550 ice class patrol vessels is conducting sea trials. Two are expected to go to the Russian Navy and two to the Russian Coast Guard.

We have talked about this class many times going back to 2016, most recently in a post, “Arctic Patrol Cutter, State of the Art–Revisited.”

Perhaps too much is made of the fact that these ships can carry two containers that might contain cruise missiles. The real story is that just about anything that can carry containers can also carry a variety of containerized weapon systems, offensive or defensive. The US has fired Tomahawk and Standard missiles from their Mk70 containerized launchers.  Even Iran has fired ballistic missiles from shipboard containers.

Russia already has a host of cruise missile launchers in the Arctic, aircraft, submarines, surface ships, and ground launchers. Should these ships receive containerized cruise missiles, they will only marginally improve Russian offensive capability.

Alternately, two containers on the stern might be used to house a towed array and torpedoes to give the ships an ASW capability.

These are probably excellent Arctic Patrol Vessel, but they are not impressive as warships, their defensive capabilities are lacking, having no AAW or anti-surface capability beyond a single medium caliber gun.

“The Project 23550 Ice-class patrol ship “Ivan Papanin”, built for the Russian Navy at “Admiralty Shipyards”, went to sea for factory sea trials. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/21229221

Any reporting you may see to the contrary, these are not the first “combat icebreakers” in the Russian Navy or Coast Guard. They are just the latest in a long string including eight Ivan Susanin class, three American built Wind class, and the Puga laid down in 1938 but not completed until 1957. Even the icebreaker Krassin, completed in 1917, and now a museum ship, was armed with four 76mm during WWII.

The Russians may take advantage of these ships to more widely distribute their cruise missiles, but that is secondary to their primary purpose as patrol vessels.

Vertical Launch AAW Missiles on a New Russian Coast Guard Cutter?

The Army Recognition Group’s Global Defense News organization reports,

According to Tehnoomsk on June 28, 2024, Russia is currently developing a new patrol ship using the Karakurt class as a platform. Shipbuilders from the Leningrad shipyard “Pella” and engineers from the Central Marine Design Bureau “Almaz” are working on this project for the Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia. This project leverages the established design of the Project 22800 Karakurt class missile corvette. The new vessel will be equipped with the Resurs 3K96-3E multi-channel anti-aircraft missile system and various other weapon systems.

We should note that this does not report there has been a contract awarded for construction, but if these are built and armed as described, it would mark a return to Cold War practice we have not seen for more than three decades and despite their small size, these cutters could be the most powerfully armed coast guard vessels in the world.

Russian Rubin class (Project 22460) patrol vessel Rasul Gamzatov, typical of recent Russian Coast Guard construction of a similar size ship.  It is armed with a single 30mm six-barrel Gatling gun. (Picture source: Военный Осведомитель)

During the Cold War the Soviet coast guard counterpart frequently operated variants of Soviet Navy vessel classes. The Russian Coast Guard still has a pair of Krivak III frigates and a Pauk class corvette that came out of this era, but since that time Russian Coast Guard patrol cutters have had no Navy counterpart. Their armament has not been much different from that of typical Offshore Patrol Vessels. I have seen no indication of either Anti-Ship missiles or Anti-Aircraft missiles (other than man portable air defense missiles) on Russian Coast Guard vessels.

Russian Project 22800 Karakurt class corvette with 76.2 mm 59-caliber AK-176MA gun and Pantsir-M gun and missile CIWS. Vertical launch system for surface to surface missiles visible amidships. Photo Source: Reddit (Warship Porn)

The ships that this proposal is based on are the Project 22800 Karakurt class missile corvette, two of which appear to have been lost in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Members of the class have been able to reinforce the Russian Black Sea Fleet even after Turkey closed the Dardanelles by using the Russian river and canal system.

The Reported Coast Guard version of the Project 22800 class would apparently replace the cruise missile vertical launch system with vertical launch systems for the 9M96E and 9M100 AAW missile systems.

The 9M96E missile is smaller than any of the Standard Missiles. In sizes it is closer to the ESSM, longer but with a smaller diameter.

The smaller IR homing 9M100 missile, which can be quad-packed into the launcher, replacing the larger missile on a 4 to 1 basis, is about the size of an AIM-9 Sidewinder, another IR homing missile, in length and diameter, but reportedly considerably heavier.

Why the Change?

Why would the Russian Coast Guard be suddenly adding AAW missiles to their cutters? It probably has something to do with the emergence of unmanned systems as a threat. If the intent was simply self-defense, I would think they would use the Pantsir-M gun and missile CIWS as mounted on all but the first two Navy Karakurt class. Instead, they will have two 30mm gatling guns. The AAW system they are getting is the same one used on the currently in production Project 20381/20385 subclasses of Steregushchiy-class corvettes where it replaced the Kashtan CIWS. 

I am guessing these cutters might be used for force protection or as mobile AAW missile batteries. There is no indication of an ASW capability on either Navy or Coast Guard versions of the Project 22800.

The Pantsir-M was presented at Army 2017

“Iran’s ‘Zulfikar’ Submersible Torpedo Boat” –Covert Shore

Covert Shores reports on Iran’s version of an unusual asymmetric threat that originated in North Korea. Used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, PATFORSWA may encounter these.

“I originally interpreted these to be Special Operations assets intended as a form of swimmer delivery vehicle. This would be consistent with related types in North Korean and Vietnamese service. In that role the torpedoes would be for self-defense. However, I now view them more as submersible torpedo boats intended to sink ships with torpedoes.”

The torpedoes are 12.75 inch (324mm) light weight anti-surface homing torpedoes. (243mm noted in the diagram above is apparently a typo.) We can’t take too much comfort in the fact that these are not heavy weight torpedoes. Heavy weight torpedoes frequently break ships in half, but because water is not compressible, the 100 pound warhead of a typical light weight torpedo still has about one half the impact of the 600 pound warhead of a typical heavy weight torpedo. These smaller torpedoes can seriously hurt even a large ship, possibly including immobilizing it, and making it an easier target for follow on attacks. Used against a vessel the size of PATFORSWA’s Fast Response Cutters, they would be fatal. Assuming these are wake homers, it might be wise to learn the maneuvers used to defeat wake homing torpedoes.

It is unlikely these little submersibles can go very deep or that they have much mobility while submerged. Even so, much of the Persian Gulf is shallow, so there are certainly places where they could rest on the bottom, lying in wait.

A Question of Proportionality / What to do about Philippine Outposts in the South China Sea?

A still image taken from footage released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines showing China Coast Guard personnel confronting a resupply mission (Photo: Armed Forces of the Philippines)

Real Clear Defense reports,

Philippines Vows To Fight Back if Assaulted Again in South China Sea

At first, I was happy to see this, but I think they are making a mistake.

Philippine forces will defend themselves with “the same level of force …“If a knife is used, for example, our personnel will also use a knife, nothing more, under the concept of proportionality.”

If you are outnumbered in a knife fight you will lose. They will be outnumbered, and they will lose. That would be allowing the Chinese to write the rules of the game. Deadly force is deadly force. If someone is threatening you with a deadly weapon, you need to fire a warning shot, and if they keep coming shot the SOB.

Crews need to say, no one will take my vessel from me. As someone said, “Don’t Give Up the Ship.”

The Chinese are not going to start a war that might include the US until they are fully prepared to do so. Then and only then, they will want to open with a surprise attack.

The Philippines needs to raise the stakes for the Chinese to the point that they either back down or start a war with the US before they are really ready.

Right now, the Chinese are attempting to shape the battlefield to their advantage, building unsinkable missile cruisers surrounding Taiwan. The Philippines holds territory where they would like to place another missile launching platform. So does Japan. China should not be allowed to seize these positions.

Immediately the Philippines should make it clear to the Chinese, that they have no right to be in the Philippine EEZ, or any other country’s, behaving as they have. There is no reason to negotiate because they have no standing. That was decided in the international court of arbitration.

It might be possible to make a joint statement by the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam,  Indonesia, and maybe others.

When a move is made, it needs to be made with overwhelming strength on scene. That is possible if the Philippines employs surprise and has international support on scene. Philippine TA-50 jet aircraft should be overhead, ready to deter an attack on Philippine forces.

The result will be an incident, not a war. We have already seen lots of incidents, this will just add to the list, but this time we need the Chinese to back down.

Scarbough Shoal  and Second Thomas Shoal need to be reinforced and built up. The US and Japan could and should help the Philippines do it. Mirror what the Chinese have done. Make an artificial island, garrisoned with Marines, give it radars, effective AAW systems, and some of the Philippines’ BraMos missiles.

The Chinese are not going to like it, but unless they want to start a war with the US before they are ready, they will back down. Pulling a piece or two out of their plan to surround Taiwan with missile firing islands might actually prevent an attack on Taiwan.