Category Archives: Africa

Document Alert: World Wide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, 2/9/16

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We have a statement for the record (pdf) from James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, dated February 9, 2016. Perhaps it is the nature of the beast, but there is no good news, and much that is bad.

Smuggling of every type appears to be on the rise including drugs and people. We can expect an increase in illegal immigration as a result of violence, poverty, and disorder in Latin America and particularly Cuba and Central America.

It is a relatively compact document. There are sections on Terrorism (pp 4-6), transnational organized crime (pp 11-12), Arctic (p 13), Environmental Risks and Climate Change (pp 13-14), health (including potential pandemics) (pp 14-15), and Global Displacement, “These 60 million consist of approximately 20 million refugees, 38 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), and approximately 2 million stateless persons, also according to UNHCR statistics.” (p.15)

There are also regional assessments including one on Latin America and the Caribbean (pp 28-29).

There is no regional assessment for the US. In terms of direct terrorist threats to the US, while there is a recognition of an aspiration on the part of various groups to attack the US, but the emphasis seems to be on “homegrown violent extremists” (HVEs) and there is nothing about the possibility of a maritime attack on the US. Is that because none exist?

Trimaran Patrol Boat

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Our friend at NavyRecognition offers this video of the CMN Ocean Eagle 43 prototype built for the Navy of Mozambique, in sea trials in what are reported to be State 5 seas.

There is no displacement listed, but, except in beam, this vessel is notably smaller than the Webber class WPCs (143 ft vs 154 for the Webber class). It has a smaller crew (7) and accommodations (15), but otherwise appears to have similar capabilities with a speed of 30 knots, a range of 3000 miles at 20 knots, and a 7 meter RHIB in a ramp at the stern.

They also advertise a proposed mine hunter version that is more limited in speed and dispenses with the small UAS flight deck in favor of unmanned underwater vehicles for mine hunting and destruction. Assuming the same hull is used, the dimensions for both are 43.6 meter in length, 15.7 meter beam, and two meter draft.

When it comes time to replace the 87 footers, perhaps we should consider something similar, though dealing with the much greater beam might be a bit of a challenge in some places.

Illegal Fishing

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gCaptain has an interesting post on illegal fishing off Africa and how they hope to counter it.

“We are cutting away at the model. We’ll attack the insurance, the availability of supplies and crew, attack the landing ports and the markets they use. It is death by a thousand cuts,”

They report that globally illegal fishing is a $23B business.

Are we confident this is not a major problem in the under patrolled Western Pacific? It seems every time we actually patrol the area, we find some illegal activity.

OBANGAME EXPRESS 2015: Two steps forward. One step back.–CIMSEC

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Very interesting and balanced assessment of an exercise in the Gulf of Guinea from a German observer describing the successes and failures in attempting coordination between nations with long held suspicions and distrust.

Former USCG 378 figures prominently in an accompanying photo.

This is an important, but difficult area to work in. Fractured politically, the exercise included 23 nations. This was a US sponsored exercise, but it had substantial European participation.

Nice to see an honest exercise report, that is more than all sweetness and light.