Document Alert: World Wide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, 2/9/16

We have a statement for the record (pdf) from James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, dated February 9, 2016. Perhaps it is the nature of the beast, but there is no good news, and much that is bad.

Smuggling of every type appears to be on the rise including drugs and people. We can expect an increase in illegal immigration as a result of violence, poverty, and disorder in Latin America and particularly Cuba and Central America.

It is a relatively compact document. There are sections on Terrorism (pp 4-6), transnational organized crime (pp 11-12), Arctic (p 13), Environmental Risks and Climate Change (pp 13-14), health (including potential pandemics) (pp 14-15), and Global Displacement, “These 60 million consist of approximately 20 million refugees, 38 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), and approximately 2 million stateless persons, also according to UNHCR statistics.” (p.15)

There are also regional assessments including one on Latin America and the Caribbean (pp 28-29).

There is no regional assessment for the US. In terms of direct terrorist threats to the US, while there is a recognition of an aspiration on the part of various groups to attack the US, but the emphasis seems to be on “homegrown violent extremists” (HVEs) and there is nothing about the possibility of a maritime attack on the US. Is that because none exist?

Turkey’s OPC

DOST class, Turkish CG

Photo: NavalAnalyses.Blogspot.Com. Click on the photo to enlarge

The German Navy Blog “Marine Forum,”

“5 January, Turkey, Acting on a tip-off / intelligence input, Turkish Coast Guard ships „Yasam“ and „Umut“ intercept Bolivian-flagged freighter „Joudi“ in international waters off Tobruk (Libya) … after receiving Bolivian government permission to board and search ship, boarding team finds 13 tonnes of cannabis.
“(rmks: first such action distant from Turkish waters; made feasible with induction of large DOST class patrol ships–emphasis applied–Chuck)”

So I looked up the class. The four ships of this class are the largest vessels in the Turkish Coast Guard. The next largest are only 210 tons. They are based on the Italian Sirio Class patrol vessels which operate under the Italian Navy but were paid for by the Transport and Navigation Ministry. I suspect the Sirio Class (appropriately modified) may have been the basis of the Marinette Marine’s OPC proposal.

Specs for the Turkish ships from my Combat Fleets of the World, 16th ed. with my translation to English units are:

  • Displacement: 1,700 tons (full load)
  • Overall Length: 88.4m (292 ft)
  • Length at Waterline: 80.3m (265 ft)
  • Beam: 12.2m (40.26 ft)
  • Draught: 4.6m (15.2 ft)
  • Speed: 22 knots
  • Power 4 MTU 16V, diesels, 2CP props, 14,120 BHP

The Gun: The Beda Bofors twin 40mm/70 gun is not a bad choice. It has been around for a while and it has improved over time. Current models are rated at 450 rounds per minute per barrel for 900 rounds per minute for the twin mount. That is faster than a .50 cal. M2 machine gun. The Italian Navy used this as a CIWS before switching to the improved 120 round per minute 76mm. It also has adequate range, 13,675 yards (12,500 m). This is less range than either a 57mm or 76mm, but adequate for most Coast Guard missions. There are at least four different projectiles available. The standard projectiles are about two pounds. There is also a high velocity solid tungsten alloy rod armour-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) projectile that would probably be good for destroying fairly large diesel engines. .

If I read this correctly, the video is 380 rounds in 43 seconds.

Also from “Combat Fleets” this on the Turkish Coast Guard.

“Personnel: Approx. 2,200 total including 800 regulars and 1,400 conscripts, plus 1,050 on loan from the navy.

“Aviation: Coast Guard air assets include one Maule MX-7 light fixed-wing  and three CASA CN-235 maritime patrol aircraft (the basic airframe for the HC-144, Chuck). Three Austa-Bell AB-206B Helicopters and thirteen search and rescue configured Agusta-Bell 412 helicopters. The aircraft are pained white with an orange diagonal stripe.”

Navy PCs Support Operation Martillo, WPCs Next?

USS_Hurricane_(PC-3),_USS_Typhoon_(PC-5)_and_USS_Chinook_(PC-9)_underway_in_March_2015

Navy photo: The U.S. Navy Cyclone-class coastal patrol ships assigned to Patrol Coastal Squadron 1 (PCRON 1), USS Hurricane (PC-3), USS Chinook (PC-9) and USS Typhoon (PC-5), transit in formation during a divisional tactics exercise in the Persian Gulf.

The Navy has announced they have three 387 ton (fl) Cyclone class patrol craft based in Mayport, rotating through the 4th Fleet’s area in support of Operation Martillo, the counter drug operation off Central America.

We know there are not enough ships to respond to all the intelligence we have on drug trafficing in SouthCom’s area of responsibility.

These little ships are considerably smaller than those we normally send South, but they are very similar in size to the new 353 ton Webber class WPCs. We have six Webber class in Miami, six in Key West, and will soon have six in Puerto Rico. If we could rotate some of these through the Transit zones, they might make a difference.

Thanks to Lee for bringing this to my attention.

 

Venezuela Claims USCG Violates Their Air Space

1280px-2010-06-11_Do228_Kustwacht_PH-CGC_EDDB_01

Photo: Do 228 of the Dutch Coast Guard at Berlin Schönefeld Airport. Photographer: “Wo st 01/Wikipedia”

We have a report that Venezuela is claiming a USCG aircraft violated their air space and further they suspect this may have had something to do with an upcoming election.

“Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said Sunday the Dash-8 aircraft flew out of Curacao, a Dutch island not far off Venezuela’s Caribbean coast. He said that during a 30-minute period the plane twice entered Venezuelan airspace over the tiny archipelago of Los Monjes on Friday while performing what appeared to be a reconnaissance mission in the Gulf of Venezuela, which is also bounded by Colombia…he said the timing of the apparent maneuvers, as the country prepares for key legislative elections next month, was suspicious, recalling other U.S. military exercises that allegedly preceded a brief coup in 2002 against then President Hugo Chavez.”

Of course the USCG does not operate the Dash-8, but I suppose in the right circumstances an HC-144 might be mistaken for a Dash-8. The Dutch Caribbean Coast Guard which operates out of Curacao does operate Dash-8 aircraft, and they, like the USCG, make their aircraft with diagonal stripes as seen in the photo above.

This sort of misunderstanding is very unfortunate, because it impugns the motives of the Coast Guard. The USCG has worked effectively with Cuba, Russia, and China, and I am sure there are reasons to work with Venezuela as well, but this sort of thing gets in the way.

“Opinion: Coast Guard Budget Reductions Puts U.S. at Risk”–USNI

The US Naval Institute has a nice opinion piece by a retired Navy Rear Admiral, advocating restoration of funding cut from the Coast Guard budget over the last few years, and not incidentally greater number of National Security Cutters (NSC) to replace the High Endurance Cutters.

This is not the Admiral’s first editorial advocating for the Coast Guard. Whatever his affiliation, his opinions are on point, and I would really like to see the Congress add a ninth NSC to the budget

Long Range Interceptor In Action

I would not normally talk about a routine law enforcement action, but this video has some interesting aspects.

Stratton recently intercepted a second semi-submersible, that had been spotted by a Navy patrol aircraft, arresting its four crewmembers and recovering 12,000 pounds of its 16,000 pound cargo of Cocaine, before the semi-submersible sank under tow.

What I wanted to point out in the video was:

First, the instrumentation on the 35 foot Long Range Interceptor ship’s boat (time 1:12). (Correction–I made and error here, this is actually the instrumentation on a 26 foot “Over-the-Horizon (OTH) IV” of which the Coast Guard has procured 101.) It looks a lot like the “glass cockpit” of a modern light plane. Long Range Interceptors are only deployed by the Bertholf class National Security Cutters. (The OTH-IV is operated from the NSCs, WHECs, WMECs, and WPCs. Anyone know if they are also operated from WAGBs and WLBs?)

Second, was the way the boat was recovered in the stern ramp of Stratton (2:25 to 3:00). Note there is no one in the bow to attach the line that will pull the boat up onto the ramp. In 2013 we had a fatality on the Waesche because the automatic capture mechanism was not working properly and Petty Officer Travis Obendorf was on the bow of the boat. You can access the accident report here.